APEX
AUTONOMOUS PREDICTION ENGINE

ROADMAP

WHAT APEX IS TESTING NEXT, WHEN EACH TEST DECIDES, AND HOW. EACH TEST'S PASS AND FAIL RULES ARE WRITTEN DOWN BEFORE ITS DATA IS LOOKED AT, AND EVERY VERDICT STAYS ON THIS PAGE, PASS OR FAIL.

UPDATED NOV 2, 2026 · "ABOUT" DATES MOVE WITH THE DATA
NEXT CHECK
NOV 3
COMING UP
8
DECIDED
10

HOW THE CHECKS WORK

RULES FIRST

A test's pass and fail rules are written down before any of its data is looked at, so a result can't be argued into a pass afterwards. Reviews and measurements are labelled as such.

DATED IN ADVANCE

Every check is listed here before it runs, with what it decides. Most wait for a set amount of data, so their dates are estimates.

EVERY VERDICT POSTED

Passes and fails both stay on this page and go out in the weekly email. Results themselves are sealed in the daily record.

COMING UP

IN DATE ORDER
  1. NOV 3
    APEX1 PRICE READINGSTEST · RULES SET OCT 29

    METALS: IS THE EDGE ALREADY IN THE PRICE?

    Could the signal behind APEX2's trial work on metals markets too? The first question is whether metals prices already account for it.

    DECIDESNeeds 30 or more price readings; the first try on Oct 30 had 21. If the price leaves room for the edge, a small trial gets designed. If it doesn't, metals are dropped. Too few readings: it runs again later.
  2. ABOUTNOV 13
    APEX1TEST · RULES SET OCT 12

    TWO TIMING RULES FOR CRYPTO

    Should APEX skip new crypto bets at certain times? Two rules, written on Oct 12, get one run on fresh data, Oct 13 to Nov 12.

    DECIDESA rule is adopted only if the bets it would skip clearly did worse than the rest. Otherwise nothing changes.
  3. ABOUTNOV 13–14
    APEX2TEST · RULES SET OCT 25

    THE SECOND STRATEGY'S FIRST CHECKPOINT

    APEX2's trial on all nine coins gets its first look at 200 filled bets.

    DECIDESThe trial stops if the whole 90% range of its result per contract is below zero. Otherwise it carries on to 600 bets.
  4. ABOUTNOV 14
    APEX1 ORDER BOOKMEASUREMENT

    CAN APEX TRADE LARGER?

    Since Oct 31, every price APEX checks also measures how much larger it could trade before it starts moving the price against itself. Two weeks of readings give the first answer.

    DECIDESSize stays where it is until these readings and fresh results both support a change.
  5. ABOUTNOV 16
    APEX1RE-TEST · RULES SET OCT 29

    ORDERS THAT WAIT FOR A FILL

    Would orders that wait in the order book, instead of taking the price on offer, earn more on a slice of APEX's entries? On history the answer wasn't clear, so the same rules run again on sessions since Oct 30, unseen until 1,000 filled contracts.

    DECIDESA pass leads to a small live trial. A fail closes the idea for crypto.
  6. NOV 23
    NEW MARKETSRE-RUN · RULES SET NOV 2

    A NEW GROUP OF MARKETS: SECOND LOOK

    A first look on Nov 2 found nothing to trade in a newly active group of 15-minute markets. The same test runs again with three more weeks of data.

    DECIDESOnly a clear change from the first look would reopen it. Any trial that followed would get its own rules, written down first.
  7. ABOUTMID-DEC
    APEX1TEST · RULES SET OCT 30

    A TIMING TEST ON COMMODITIES

    Do commodity markets behave differently at one time of day? The test waits for 160 qualifying cases since Oct 13.

    DECIDESTwo parts must pass: the pattern itself, then a price check that the market doesn't already account for it. Both pass: a small trial. Either fails: dropped.
  8. ABOUTLATE DEC
    APEX2TEST · RULES SET OCT 25

    THE SECOND STRATEGY'S VERDICT

    At 600 filled bets, APEX2's trial gets its decision.

    DECIDESPass if the whole 90% range is above zero. If the middle is above zero but the range crosses it, carry on to 1,700 bets. Otherwise stop.

DECIDED SINCE OCT 24

NEWEST FIRST · FAILS INCLUDED

An idea has to pass before it's adopted or kept, and many don't. That's the filter doing its job. How APEX is doing right now is on the live page and in the daily record; the story before Oct 24 is being told in the build log.

ADOPTED OR KEPT 5

  1. NOV 1APEX1KEPT Two-week review of APEX1's current setup. Ahead overall, carried by commodities and FX. Crypto is behind and watched closely, with the tuner deciding when it trades. A review, not a test set in advance.
  2. OCT 29APEX1KEPT Standing down around big economic releases stays on APEX1, except around jobs reports. APEX2 dropped it: it cost the trial its best chances.
  3. OCT 29APEX2KEPT Three guard rules on the trial, checked on data: two kept, and one had too few cases to judge, so it stays as it is.
  4. OCT 24APEX2ADOPTED A new crypto signal passed and became APEX2's trial, live from Oct 25. On metals there were too few cases to judge (the Nov 3 check).
  5. OCT 24APEX1ADOPTED At most one market per group starts betting in a session, so markets that move together aren't all bet at once. On ten months of history it kept almost all of the profit and cut the deepest drawdown by about a sixth.

RULED OUT 5

  1. NOV 2NEW MARKETSNOT ADDED A newly active group of markets, first look: nothing to trade. Second look Nov 23.
  2. OCT 30APEX2 SIGNALNOT ADDED The trial's signal on energy markets, tested on history: no edge there.
  3. OCT 29APEX1NOT ADOPTED A formula for the best entry point: no better than the rule APEX already uses.
  4. OCT 24BOTHNOT BUILT A market-wide risk guard across every market: all six tests failed.
  5. OCT 24APEX1REPLACED APEX1's earlier betting setup lost money per bet. The current setup has run since Oct 20.

ALSO ON THE WAY

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